Fiocruz launches panel to monitor the evolution of extreme weather events

October began with yet another heatwave in Brazil, the eighth that the country has faced in 2024. High temperatures in the Southeast, drought in the North, heavy rains in the South. Different scenarios point to a growing concern: the increase and frequency of extreme events and the risks they bring to public health. Recently, the Climate and Health Observatory of the Institute for Scientific and Technological Communication and Information in Health (ICICT/Fiocruz) published a panel which tracks the evolution of these events across the country. With data provided by the Civil Defense since the year 2000, the system alerts to the increase in disasters over the past years in Brazil. They are nothing new – they have always occurred – but, influenced by climate change, they have become more frequent and intense, leaving an ever-increasing trail of victims. 

Many important rivers in the Amazon are at historically low levels in 2024 (photo: Paulo Desana Dabukuri/ISA)

The data collected by the Observatory shows that the highest number of records is concentrated between 2020 and 2023, rising from 2,962 to 6,772 extreme events. Although 2024 still lacks complete data, researchers believe that the numbers will continue to grow, following the trend of previous years, and may even surpass those already recorded. 

"The growth pattern observed between 2020 and 2023 is likely to continue, with the potential to be exceeded as the impacts of climate change and Brazil's environmental vulnerability become increasingly evident and frequent," assesses researcher Diego Xavier, one of the coordinators of the Climate and Health Observatory. 

Several major rivers in the Amazon are expected to reach historic lows in 2024. The level of the Solimões River, in Itapéua (AM), is at 2.3 meters, the third lowest level ever recorded. The Madeira, one of the main tributaries of the Amazon, reached only 41 cm. The Acre River, in Rio Branco, is at 1.28 meters, the second lowest level in history. In São Félix do Xingu (PA), the Xingu River is at 3.37 meters, among the 10 lowest levels since 1977. The Amazon River, in Óbidos (PA), reached 1.17 meters. In Manaus, the Black River is below 13 meters, just like in 2023, but now at the lowest level ever recorded. 

Adding to this scenario is the disaster in Rio Grande do Sul, which affected a large part of the population and caused various social, economic and public health impacts, along with the wildfires in Brazil, particularly in the Amazon and Pantanal, as well as other areas of critical vegetation, which have been exacerbated by drought and dry conditions across the country. "Considering these events, it is very likely that 2024 will record an even greater number of extreme events compared to previous years," says the researcher.  
Types of events and their impacts on public health. 

The figures show that 2023 saw a record number of extreme events, most of which (3,824) were climatological in nature, i.e. droughts and dry spells, hailstorms, frosts, cold and heat waves. Another 2,377 occurrences were meteorological (local storms and extreme temperature events); 537 were hydrological (floods, inundations, flash floods and surges); and 34 were geological (erosion, mass movement and landslides). 

This data not only illustrates the impact on the environment, but also helps to identify how it affects the lives and health of the population. From 2020 to 2023, the number of people ill due to disasters rose from 54,000 to 157,000, and the number of those affected by these disasters more than doubled, increasing from 21 million to 48 million. The highest death tolls were in 2022, with at least 600 bodies, and in 2011, where there were more than 970 deaths. In both years, the data is the result of intense rains and landslides in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro. 

These figures are not only due to the immediate effects or those directly related to the disaster: people with cardiovascular problems, for example, have a higher risk of heart attacks and high blood pressure when they inhale fine particles of smoke from the fires. Those affected by floods may suffer from diarrhea, gastroenteritis, vector-borne diseases and leptospirosis. And, as a consequence of any disaster, it is always possible to see an increase in cases of post-traumatic stress disorder, allergies, intoxication, poisoning, falls and interruptions in treatment for hypertensive, diabetic and dialysis patients, among other issues.  

Against this backdrop, access to harmonized data, such as that provided by the Climate and Health Observatory, is essential to offer rapid responses to these events, avoid overburdening the health system – something that happens frequently – and prevent the number of people affected from continuing to grow. Especially among the most vulnerable groups: The poorest, the elderly, pregnant women and children. 
"Extreme events, which are occurring more frequently due to climate change, have a significant impact on public health and the Unified Health System. We need to look at this scenario and prepare ourselves. This applies both for managers, to make the right decisions, and for civil society, to demand more appropriate measures for the different Brazilian territories," says researcher Renata Gracie, one of the coordinators of the Climate and Health Observatory.

Action plan 

With climate change having a strong influence on the dynamics of these events, an action plan to tackle this growing vulnerability seems essential. In fact, it has existed since 2015, but only on paper. "It has expired," says researcher Christovam Barcellos, one of the coordinators of the Climate and Health Observatory. "It was developed at a time of institutional crises, compromising its formulation with the broad participation of government institutions and society. "It ended up having little impact on government actions," he explains. 

This year, a new National Climate Change Adaptation Plan has begun being drafted. Based on Law 14.904/2024, which "sets guidelines for preparing climate change adaptation plans" in all spheres and sectors of government, the new document promises to be more robust and comprehensive, with goals and targets to be monitored over the next 10 years. In this context, the Ministry of Health has already begun drafting the Sectoral Climate Change Adaptation Plan, which aims to create adaptation strategies within the federal management of the Unified Health System (SUS) to reduce the impacts of climate change on people's health and healthcare services. Fiocruz is part of the working group that is drafting the document. 

"The historical moment in which this plan is being drafted, with all participants still strongly impacted by the images of the floods in Rio Grande do Sul, the wildfires in central Brazil, and the drought in the Amazon, has contributed to this mobilization," says Barcellos. The health sectoral plan is in the final revision stage and will be submitted for public consultation later this year.