Oswaldo Cruz Foundation an institution in the service of life

Início do conteúdo

Study shows gradual drop in fertility rates


Fiocruz Pernambuco


A study published in the British journal The Lancet analyzes fertility rates around the world and points out that, by the year 2100, only 6 (3%) out of 204 countries will have sustainable levels of births for sustainable population replacement. The paper analyzes data from 1950 to 2021 and projects for 2050 and 2100. The research is the result of a partnership between an international study group called Global Burden of Diseases. The team includes Rafael Moreira, a researcher from the Public Health department at Fiocruz Pernambuco.

The fertility rate considered acceptable at the population replacement level is 2.1 children per woman over her lifetime. In 1950, the global figure was 4.84, falling to 2.23 in 2021. Future projections point to 1.83 in 2050 and 1.59 in 2100.

"Fertility estimates and projections are necessary to plan policies involving needs for resources and health care, labor supply, education, gender equality and family planning," the researchers point out in the article.

In Brazil, the fertility rate was 5.93 children in 1950 and 1.93 in 2021. Future expectations indicate a drop, suggesting 1.57 in 2050 and 1.31 in 2100, below the world projection.

"Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under the successful implementation of pro-birth policies. These changes will have economic and social consequences due to the ageing of the population and the decline in the workforce," the article shows.

Back to the topBack